2024 MLB Odds: Five teams to bet the over on projected win totals

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The 2024 MLB season starts in less than one month, which means it’s time for MLB bettors to start looking at season-long futures bets, such as betting over or under win totals for every team.

I went through every team’s win totals as currently listed on FanDuel Sportsbook and picked five teams I’m most confident will go over their respective totals (I’ll identify five unders next week).

Before we begin, let me make one thing very clear: Win totals are not just about how good a team is. They are also about the strength of the division each team plays in. Consider the lines for the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.5) and the Texas Rangers (89.5). 

While the Dodgers have assembled a superteam, led by the addition of Shohei Ohtani this winter, I do not believe they are a full 14 wins better than the defending World Series champions. But L.A. plays in a weaker division, while Texas has to deal with the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners in the American League West.

With that said, here are the five teams I have the most confidence in exceeding their win totals in 2024.

Chicago Cubs over 84.5 wins

2023 record: 83-79
Key additions: Shota Imanaga, Michael Busch, Hector Neris
Key subtractions: Marcus Stroman, Jeimer Candelario

Bringing Bellinger back was a necessity for the Cubs to have a shot at making the playoffs, and they got it done. As far as the lineup, I like it a bit more. I think Busch could be a difference-maker. I think Pete Crow-Armstrong has the ability to compete for Rookie of the Year. He adds a huge dynamic to that outfield; if he’s playing center field, he’s one of the best center fielders in baseball.

The Cubs have a sneaky good backend of the bullpen. Adbert Alzolay and Neris can be a dominant duo. While the rotation is adequate, I like Justin Steele a lot. Jameson Taillon and Imanaga are question marks for me. All in all, I really do think this club is better than it was last year.

Will the Dodgers & Cubs hit the over on their 2024 win totals?

Los Angeles Dodgers over 103.5 wins

2023 record: 100-62
Key additions: Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández
Key subtractions: J.D. Martinez, Ryan Pepiot

The Dodgers are going to be, by far, the best regular-season team in baseball. They should also finish with the most wins in the National League by a healthy margin because of how competitive the NL East is coupled with how many NL West wins are out there for the Dodgers. 

Hernández is the sneakiest, most underrated addition to this team. He’s really, really good, and no one’s talking about how well he’s going to slot into the lineup and outfield because of the $1 billion the Dodgers paid to Ohtani and Yamamoto. You add Glasnow to that rotation, you get Walker Buehler back at some point this year, and now you have a rotation that is not only great but deep. 

Then you consider the offensive firepower that already existed before adding Ohtani and Hernández. Gavin Lux, who got hurt in spring training last season, is also back. I think this is going to be one of the best lineups that we’ve ever seen. 

New York Yankees over 93.5 wins

2023 record: 82-80
Key additions: Juan Soto, Marcus Stroman, Alex Verdugo
Key subtractions: Michael King, Jhony Brito

The Yankees got a lot better. They’re going to have a good rotation after dealing with so many injuries last year. Carlos Rodón was sidelined a massive chunk of the year, and when he did come back, he didn’t look right. But he’s coming into the year healthy. You still have Gerrit Cole and you add Stroman to the staff. Offensively, you have Soto and Aaron Judge hitting back-to-back. 

I think the Yanks should be a World Series favorite. They need to be healthy, but so do many teams around the league. I think we’re underrating the Yankees in the public eye.

Will the Yankees go over 93.5 wins in 2024?

Cincinnati Reds over 81.5 wins

2023 record: 82-80
Key additions: Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez
Key subtractions: Nick Senzel, Joey Votto, Harrison Bader

The Reds will absolutely be better. They easily have the top starting rotation in the NL Central. You have Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Martinez and Montas, who is a good addition. Then there’s this lineup full of these 20-something-year-old guys with so much talent. I believe Elly De La Cruz will improve and have a strong first full season in the league. I think Christian Encarnacion-Strand is going to be really good. Cincinnati also added Candelario.

In my opinion, the St. Louis Cardinals have the best offense in the NL Central, but by the time September and October rolls around, we could be looking back and saying, “the best offense in the NL Central was the Cincinnati Reds’ because their young guys stepped up and took a massive step forward with that rotation.”

Texas Rangers over 89.5 wins

2023 record: 90-72
Key additions: David Robertson, Tyler Mahle
Key subtractions: Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Aroldis Chapman

The Rangers really hit their stride in the playoffs. They found their confidence and how they want to play as a team. What they learned about themselves is invaluable, and they’re going to be really good again this year.

I think Adolis García’s career changed last October. More specifically, I think it was altered when he got hit against the Astros and went 0-for-4 with four punchouts that next game and then, in his fifth at-bat, hit a home run. From that point onward, he was the best player in the playoffs. Texas also gets a full season of Evan Carter, who is a star in the making.

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Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the “Flippin’ Bats” podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.

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